DOWNFALL IN CAIRO: Morsy is out. The military is in. But it doesn't look good for anyone

Millions of Egyptians on protest

By Marc Lynch

Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Sisi's announcement of the removal of Egyptian President Mohamed Morsy, suspension of the Constitution, and early presidential elections has brought Egypt's latest political crisis to its endgame. The massive crowds in the street will welcome the military's intervention deliriously, while all will await the potential response of enraged Muslim Brotherhood supporters.

Nobody should celebrate a military coup against Egypt's first freely elected president, no matter how badly he failed or how badly they hate the Muslim Brotherhood. Turfing out Morsy will not come close to addressing the underlying failures that have plagued Egypt's catastrophic transition over the last two and a half years. The military's intervention is an admission of the failure of Egypt's entire political class, and those now celebrating already probably know that they could soon rue the coup.

This new uprising certainly upends what U.S. policymakers considered to be their best efforts to support a shaky democratic transition. Few in Washington are sorry to see Morsy go. But few believe that this process, a mass uprising culminating in a military coup, will restore stability or lead to a more democratic outcome. The Muslim Brotherhood performed atrociously in power, but the real problem was always the weakness and illegitimacy of the political institutions. If the coup and uprising solve the first at the expense of the second, then the political reset will fail.

One of the many ironies of recent days is that for all the anti-American anger among Egyptian protesters, their efforts seem set to empower the military. And of course it is the military, not the Muslim Brotherhood, that remains America's closest ally in Egypt. The United States has not publicly supported the coup, but the coup could ultimately provide Washington with more opportunities to effectively engage. But for that to help matters, Washington is going to have to do a much better job than it did in 2011 and 2012 in pushing the military toward respecting the rights of the popular forces that now embrace it and toward a rapid restoration of civilian rule and brokering of a meaningful political consensus.

American officials have over the last few years consistently, and correctly, focused on supporting a democratic process in Egypt without supporting any specific political force (including the Muslim Brotherhood, despite what too many Egyptians now believe). Barack Obama's administration wanted to see democratic institutions take hold, with the Muslim Brotherhood included in the political process, but ultimately not dominant. That's why so many American officials grew so deeply frustrated with the opposition for its seeming unwillingness or inability to organize for democratic politics, and with the Muslim Brotherhood for its unwillingness or inability to reach out to the opposition in order to build political consensus.

Success for the U.S. approach of supporting the democratic process would have meant seeing the Brotherhood punished at the ballot box for its political failures. Imagine if the forces that came out in the streets on June 30, in the demonstrations that precipitated Morsy's overthrow, had instead turned out in the same numbers to vote against the Brotherhood's parliamentary candidates. Such a parliament would have created the first genuine balance of power among elected institutions in Egyptian history and denied Morsy his recourse to exclusive electoral legitimacy. But an acceptable new election law bogged down between the Brotherhood's ham-handed ambition and Egypt's political dysfunction. Whether there could have been an electoral path toward checking Morsy's power this year has become one more counterfactual that will never be tested.

While its focus on supporting a democratic transition was correct and should be sustained, there's no doubt that the United States made many mistakes in Egypt over the last few years. One of the most frustrating was its failure to effectively communicate its policy or engage more broadly across Egyptian society. The wave of anti-American sentiments in the streets today, expressed most vividly in the posters denouncing Ambassador Anne Patterson, bear witness to those failures. True, it would never have been easy for Washington to defend its positions within Egypt's intensely polarized and hypercharged media environment. But the administration could have tried harder to listen to Egyptian voices and engage their concerns -- and to more consistently and publicly express its concerns about human rights, civil society, and tolerance.

The most prevalent, and damaging, myth enabled by this failure to communicate is that the Obama administration backed the Muslim Brotherhood and Morsy. That was never the case. It may not have been visible through the fog of Egypt's political polarization, but there was never a great relationship between Washington and the Brotherhood, and certainly no alliance. The United States accepted the Muslim Brotherhood's democratic participation and Morsy's electoral victory because it correctly viewed their inclusion in the political game as necessary to any meaningful Egyptian democracy. But accepting the Brotherhood's political participation was not one of America's mistakes in Egypt; indeed, that very participation will be essential in whatever new political leadership emerges -- and in making sure that Morsy resists the powerful pressures to seek revenge that could trigger Mubarak-era repression, political bans, or worse.

Washington worked with the Muslim Brotherhood as an elected leadership and was right to do so, but that never translated into the kind of deeper alignment that many suspected. It's true that Morsy's help in securing a cease-fire during the short-lived Gaza conflict last November won some grudging respect in Washington, because it seemed to demonstrate that his pragmatism would outweigh his ideological preferences. But the enduring suspicion of the Muslim Brotherhood in Washington gained traction as Morsy and his party failed in power. And any goodwill that Morsy had won in Washington this past winter was quickly squandered by his constitutional power grab, reports of human rights abuses, and the law ruling against foreign NGOs.

Meanwhile, in Cairo, Egyptian protesters were infuriated that Ambassador Patterson met with Brotherhood Deputy Supreme Guide Khairat El Shater for three hours on the eve of the crisis. But the real problem was not the meeting, but that she was unable to persuade Shater and the Brotherhood to make the real concessions that might have prevented this crisis.

What now? There remains a very real, urgent risk of major violence and further political or even state collapse, of course. But even if the worst is avoided, Egypt faces a real risk of becoming trapped in an endless loop of failed governments, military interventions, and popular uprisings. The very idea of democratic legitimacy has taken a severe beating, and the coming constitutional reforms and new elections will not pass easily. Building real consensus behind genuinely democratic institutions has to remain the guiding light for U.S. policy and the Egyptian political class, no matter how difficult this appears.

That means finally establishing political rules and institutions that can end the pervasive uncertainty and fear that have dominated the entire transition. Egypt's transition has been profoundly handicapped by the absence of any settled, legitimate rules of the game or institutional channels to settle political arguments. The procedural and substantive legitimacy of every step in the transition has been deeply contested, from the initial March 2011 constitutional referendum through the constitutional assembly and elections. The Supreme Constitutional Court's dissolution of parliament on the eve of the presidential election left the new government with no legitimate legislative branch other than the weak Shura Council for which few had bothered to vote.

Many in Washington (including me) had hoped that the passage of a constitution, however badly flawed, would finally end the pervasive uncertainty and allow the consolidation of normal politics and effective governance. Obviously, it didn't, in large part because of the Brotherhood's reckless power grab to force through a document that enjoyed no consensus. The primary focus now should be on finally finding such a consensus on the path forward, whether through constitutional amendments or a national "round table" of the major political forces and societal groups. Without such a consensus and a clear pathway toward new elections, the patterns of political dysfunction will just continue to replay endlessly even as the faces and positions change.

Can that be achieved? Certainly, recent experience is not promising. The Egyptian military has already proved its own inability to effectively run the country, and military coups are rarely a viable pathway toward democracy or stability. The opposition has proved its ability to mobilize the streets around big focal-point issues like deposing Morsy, but remains as deeply internally divided as ever and has no common policy agenda.

The Muslim Brotherhood has lost a lot of support but still commands a significant base that will feel deeply aggrieved, disenchanted with formal politics, and fearful for its personal safety. Other Islamists are playing their cards close to the vest, likely hoping to benefit from the Brotherhood's failure, but have not likely abandoned their ideological goals. And the mobilization that led to June 30 has heightened polarization, mutual demonization, dehumanization, and fear.

Washington can't do much to shape Egyptian politics right now, even if it tried. I remain deeply skeptical that the military coup will be a pathway to democracy or that the Egyptian military will be able to navigate the political waters any better today than it did in 2011. But Washington should use what influence it has to find ways to ensure that the political reset does not just repeat and entrench the mistakes of the past two and a half years -- or make them worse.

Editorial

LESSONS FROM EGYPT

The people of Egypt have once more shown that unpopular leaders cannot hang on to power forever and that when the peoples’ anger boils over nothing can hold back change.

After only one year in office, the people of Egypt have thrown out President Mohamed Morsi because they allege that he acted as President for the Muslim Brotherhood rather than Egypt.

Morsi’s protests that he was properly elected were ignored.

 The message here is that the legitimacy of leaders does not spring from their winning elections alone but also from doing the wishes of the people at all times.

 The Insight wants to hope that the Egyptian military will not attempt to hang on to power indefinitely.

The interim administration must move quickly to hand over power to a democratically elected government representing the interest of the Egyptian masses.

It is our hope that all politicians will learn the lessons from Egypt.

African Union suspends Egypt 

Map of Africa

A senior official of the African Union (AU) says the Union has suspended Egypt membership after the military ousted president, Mohamed Morsi.

Admore Kambudzi, Secretary of AU Peace and Security Council, said on Friday that Egypt was suspended from all its activities until it restores constitutional order. 

"As mandated by the relevant AU instruments, the African Union Peace and Security Council decides to suspend the participation of Egypt in AU activities until the restoration of constitutional order," Kambudzi said after an AU meeting.

Suspension is the AU's usual response to any interruption of constitutional rule in a member state. 

The move comes two days after the army ousted Morsi in response to protesters’ demands for his resignation. 

The North African country is now headed by its top judge Adly Mansour for an interim period. 

In the meantime, Morsi’s supporters continue their rallies calling for his reinstatement. They are staging a mass demonstration in Cairo’s Nasr City. The angry protesters have promised to fight to the death until their elected president is brought back to power. 

The Egyptian army has deployed tanks near the Presidential Palace and in Nasr City. 

Several arrest warrants have also been issued for members of Muslim Brotherhood to which Morsi belongs. 

In another development, the military announced state of emergency in south of Sinai and Suez Canal regions following an attack by gunmen on an airport in the Sinai town of El-Arish. 

Morsi is reportedly being held “preventively” by the military. An army official said he might face formal charges over accusations made by his opponents. 

Egypt needs real revolution

Egyptian soldiers on guard in Cairo

By Dr. Kevin Barrett

Thus ends “Islamic Revolution lite.”
Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi has fallen in a coup d’état. Morsi’s demise marks the end of the Muslim Brotherhood’s failed strategy of accommodation with the West. 

Nobody denies that the majority of Egyptians wants Islamic governance. Nobody denies that President Morsi won Egypt’s first-ever free and fair elections. 

But Egypt’s Western-backed secularist comprador elite was not ready for real democracy. They were not willing to accept the results of free and fair elections. So with the help of their Western paymasters, they hamstrung Egypt’s economy, pointed the finger of blame at Morsi, duped impressionable young people into flooding the streets, and engineered a coup d’état. 

The anti-Morsi coup has strangled Egypt’s democracy in its cradle. 

It may also have ended the Muslim Brotherhood’s misguided, hopeless attempt to Islamize Egyptian society while remaining in the Western orbit. 

Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood made a terrible mistake by forging an alliance with the West and its regional puppets. The Brotherhood has become a tool of the Zionist-dominated West, which seeks to divide and conquer the Middle East by fomenting a sectarian civil war between Sunni and Shia Muslims. Shaykh Yusuf al-Qaradawi, once a respected Brotherhood intellectual, has disgraced himself by becoming a spokesman for Zionist-instigated, Saudi-assisted anti-Shia sectarianism. 

Perhaps President Morsi thought that if he accepted the West’s dictates to join their war on Syria, keep the Gaza border closed, maintain the Camp David “surrender treaty,” enslave future generations of Egyptians to the International Monetary Fund, and let the Egyptian Army continue to rule as it did under Mubarak, he would be allowed to add a bit more shariah to the Egyptian civil code. 

It was a devil’s bargain to begin with. And the devil did not even keep the bargain. 

President Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood need to go back and study the works of the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the father of the political Islamic awakening that is shaking the globe. 

Ayatollah Khomeini insisted that there is no room for sectarianism in the Islamic awakening. Muslims are Muslims first and foremost, whether they follow the Hanafi, Malaki, Hanbali, Shafiyi, or Ja’fari law schools. 

The Muslim Brotherhood should stop inciting sectarianism, and stand up for Islamic unity. 

Secondly, Ayatollah Khomeini understood that all Muslims have a moral obligation to side with the world’s oppressed - the mustazafin - in the struggle against their oppressors. The resistance against empire, apartheid, Zionism, aggressive war, and all forms of racism and injustice is also the struggle of all Muslims. 

The Muslim Brotherhood should stop kowtowing to oppressive rulers, be they Western, Saudi, or Qatari, and join the worldwide struggle against exploitation and injustice. 

Third, Ayatollah Khomeini saw that a real Islamic revolution would require the overthrow of the old order and a complete break with the West. All of the powerful figures who propped up the Western puppet dictator, the Shah - especially the military leaders - would have to be either removed from power or successfully re-educated. And imperialist institutions such as the IMF would have to be expelled from Iran. 

The Muslim Brotherhood should recognize that it must work for a complete Islamic revolution, including removing all of the West’s puppets from power and breaking the bonds imposed by Western banks and governments, if it is to establish the Islamic society that the majority of Egyptians want. Simply winning an election, while the real power in Egypt remains with the Western-puppet military, accomplishes nothing. 

The Muslim Brotherhood should view its setback in Egypt as an opportunity to reflect on its mistakes. 

Its biggest mistake was its refusal to join the axis of resistance - the Hamas-Hezbollah-Syria-Iran alliance that is standing up to Zionist and imperialist power, with notable success. 

The Brotherhood let its tragic history in Syria blind it to the historic opportunity offered by the rising axis of resistance. 

Now is the time to take off the blinders. 

A year ago, who would have thought that the two most prominent Muslim Brotherhood-linked heads of state, President Morsi of Egypt and Emir Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani of Qatar, would fall from power almost simultaneously - while the Assad government in Syria not only remains in power, but continues to gain strength? 

The Western mainstream media kept telling us that President Assad was about to fall. 

According to them, he has been about to fall for more than two years. 

Apparently if you want an accurate view of the Middle East, you should be reading the alternative media - including Press TV, which has been consistently skeptical about the West’s claims that regime change in Syria is always just around the corner. 

The axis of resistance is winning in Syria. And it is winning, slowly but surely, in Palestine, as the world awakens to the truth about Israeli apartheid. 

The axis of capitulation to Zionism and empire is losing. 

The future is with the world’s rising economies, not the collapsing West. 

Will the coup d’état against President Morsi help awaken the Muslim Brotherhood? Will the Brotherhood decide to take a new path - the path to Islamic unity and real Islamic revolution forged 34 years ago by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini?

“Game Over” for Morsi, Israel

Morsi was in the pocket of the Israelis

By Gordon Duff

“GAME OVER” is what the massive laser light show in Tahrir Square in Egypt’s capital of Cairo is announcing to the cheering throngs.

The sign is more right than some in Egypt, than all in the West, can begin to understand.

Morsi’s rule was a game, little more, in fact, no more than the selling of a totalitarian regime built on suppression of freedom of thought and expression and the careful grooming of extremism and slavish adherence to what had been intended to be a highly secretive plot, one so complex, so convoluted that discovery was impossible.

The great game, Morsi trying to buy Egypt’s place at the table with the new “Masters of the Universe,” the coalition of Turkey’s resurgent Ottoman dreams, rumored to exist only in Erdogan’s diseased brain, Netanyahu’s endless quest to prove to mankind that depravity knows no bounds, but we only begin.

It goes much further, much deeper, layer upon layer, a grand design clearly intended to end all human moral considerations, replacing them with a new “relativism,” all thinly veiled hucksterism peddled by half-baked carnival conmen.

The con, selling “The Clash of Civilizations” as a “cover and deception” plan , covering the truth, deceiving any seeking enlightenment, meant to obscure the simple reality that a group of secret societies, some many centuries old, men serving an unseen master best described as “Satanic,” believe they have been chosen to oversee the end of humanity.

Insane as it sounds, the list of those seeking membership is endless. I don’t really think this is much of a secret anymore. No rational person could believe otherwise as we are drowning, in some cases literally, in evidence.

Only a fool would fail to see the patterns. Calling them predators is too generous. Our “elites” are more akin to a nasty strain of syphilis. You know the names, Morsi was simply trying to get on the list. Let’s be honest, I don’t think Morsi really made it.

Well, with “Game Over,” one thing is for sure, the people of Egypt and their army weren’t as easily fooled as the American people were after 9/11.

Most agree that the turning point for the army was Morsi’s call for war against Syria. Those still harboring illusions as to Morsi, excusing his behavior as “unbalanced” or “insane,” simply weren’t paying attention.

The American media had no trouble either, saw no inconsistencies in his betrayal of the Palestinians, his systematic sabotage of Egypt’s economy, his curious political alignments, neocons in America, Likudists in Israel and Al Qaeda in Syria.

Americans have gained a delightful “moral flexibility,” an ability to rationalize, to betray, to deceive and be deceived and they seem to love it.

The Egyptian people saw, the army saw. Maybe it is simply that the West has so conditioned itself with absurdity and obfuscation that questioning anything, no matter how fanciful, seems, in itself, a pointless act. Perhaps I am giving too much credit.

Don’t let the door hit you on the way out
The ugliness Morsi brought with him, his slavishness to Israel, his soullessness, rode roughshod over Egypt’s people like a pharaoh’s curse.

Yet, as the dust settles, we know it isn’t really over, not yet. “Morsi 2.0” is waiting in the wings.

Morsi was “Mubarak 2.0.” The “Masters of the Universe” aren’t going to give up on destroying Egypt, not so easily.

We can expect the car bombs, the favorite of Mossad’s false-flag ‘bag of tricks.’ Sectarian violence, Tel Aviv hopes, will derail Egypt’s second try for real independence. Consider this a prediction.

Did you get your “talking points” today?
Across the world, the bloggers and pundits are scrambling to save Morsi, their handlers frantically emailing and faxing “talking points.” Coffers will open, cash payments for articles, even for slavish comment board spamming, an Israeli psyops practice carefully tracked by Jim W. Dean of Veterans Today.

As late as this morning, dozens of owned or rented “influencers” were attacking the Muslim Brotherhood as part of the worldwide Islamic conspiracy against all mankind.

Now, as thronging millions march through Egypt’s streets, celebrating the overthrow of a government that makes North Korea look like Iceland, those same “shills,” there is no other word that applies, have turned 180 degrees and are parroting the Talumdic gang’s talking points:
· Military coup
· Suspended constitution
· Morsi was Egypt’s first “freely elected” president

What kind of constitution allowed Morsi to imprison students for unfavorable “tweets?”

Then again, how many opponents did the Muslim Brotherhood “disappear?”
Consider this another prediction.

The lynchpin
Morsi was the Lynchpin to Israel’s strategy. Morsi wasn’t just another “pretty face,” no indeed! This was, and is, a world-class thug.

Taking a lead from the Bush, Blair, Netanyahu playbook, Morsi tried to create a feeling of victimization and hysteria, first unleashing an imaginary jihad on Syria, Egypt’s historical ally and one-time partner in the short-lived United Arab Republic.

His second ploy was a threat of war against Ethiopia based on half-baked rumors that their huge hydroelectric dam would interfere with the flow of the Nile.

The real role of Morsi was to isolate Egypt, turn it into the laughing stock of the Middle East, castrate its military and create base of operations for certain foreign intelligence agencies.

Morsi’s hydra
The events of today are not to be underestimated, they are monumental. Least of all, it can be shown that a real taste for freedom can’t be quelled with repackaged tyranny, except maybe in western nations like Canada, Germany, France and, just maybe, the United States.

Could the “developed nations” be the new political and intellectual “third world?”

As for the importance of Egypt as a slave satellite of Greater Israel, enough can’t be said. One needs only to look to Libya.

After the fall of Gaddafi, more a murder than a fall, actually, there has been a total news blackout on Libya. A carefully coordinated disinformation campaign, the “pro/anti-Zionists” of the left, 99% of whom have always been useless oxygen wasters, along with their “imperialist/bankster” warmongering friends, the other side of the same counterfeit coin, have sought to rob the Libyan people of credit for a very real sacrifice.

Toward that end, our media-mogul fact-twisting friends have sought to erase Gaddafi’s history, not just as a CIA asset and host to 20 years of P2 Gladio terrorism in Europe, but of his long military partnership with Israel, the evidence of which stoked Libyan fires for weeks.

Libya, with its vast oil and petrochemical wealth, has to be reined in. Morsi was part of that effort, holding down one flank, supporting the anti-government militias while conveying jihadists to do Israel’s dirty work in Syria.

In the process, a new generation of Al Qaeda terrorists will spread a generation of suffering, down through Africa, up into Europe and, of course, assuring Libya will suffer the fate of Iraq, war without end.

Tonight, Morsi no longer sits at that table. Egypt’s security services have been looking at foreign workers, language teachers, tourists who have lingered a bit too long.
Hundreds of young and helpful Israelis, many with “other” passports, have poured into Egypt to assist their blood enemy.

Morsi is gone, but will Egypt remain Israel’s colony? 

Egypt at a Crossroads: From Revolution to Military Coup?

By Ghada Chehade

Two and a half years after the Egytian uprising, the country is at a simultaneously perilous and exciting crossroads. The situation is immediately perilous because it appears that Egypt’s options for the immediate future are either a continuation of the quintessentially flawed governance by the Muslim Brotherhood or a military coup that would return the Mubarak era (and US-inclined) military to power. At the same time, the revolutionary fervour of the people is inspiring and optimistic. These are not the Egyptians of years past. While their initial revolution may have been co-opted (as evidenced by the rise to power of Morsi and the Brotherhood), that uprising awakened something in them that cannot be put down – an urgency and a defiance that will not stop, that will continue to pour out into the streets by the tens of millions, until their grievances are properly addressed and the country is transformed and governed to serve theirneeds.

The Morsi government does not serve the Egyptian people, which is no surprise. Morsi and the Brotherhood were not directly involved in the initial revolution of 2011. They waited in the wings and then high jacked the outcome. So let it be stressed that they are not the result of the revolution. Their principles and their post-revolution policies and practices are antithetical to any authentic revolutionary change in the service of the Egyptian people.

All efforts of the Brotherhood to divert attention to issues of religion notwithstanding, the main issues plaguing the Egyptian people internally are economic (i.e., unemployment, poverty) and politico-economic. And externally, Egypt has to begin to address the military and political stranglehold imposed upon it for decades by the US and Israel and their interests in the region.

Rather than effectively address real and pressing matters, Morsi has been creating and exasperating so-called religious and sectarian cleavages, while resurrecting centuries old (and diversionary) retrograde religious debates that have nothing to do with the current realities, grievances and desires of the Egyptian people. His government has refused to work in cooperation with other groups within the country. The Brotherhood has excluded other opposition movements and concentrated authority in its hands, filling several top government posts with its own members [1].

At the same time, the Brotherhood has assured western powers of its commitment to free-market capitalism [2] and is negotiating IMF loans. IMF loans always come with heavy conditions, known as structural adjustment programs (SAPs), which are ultimately bad for the local economy and people but prosperous for foreign interests and “investors.”

SAPs open up domestic markets to Western “direct investment” and privatization. This will ultimately serve to further enrich Western multinational corporations and private industries, while limiting access to much-needed public services (through privatization).

Overall, the Brotherhood is bad for Egypt and it will be great if they are made to step down. However, a military coup that sees many Mubarak-era, US-backed generals and military leaders hold power is also bad for the county and its people. Egypt is between a political rock and a hard place. While a military coup may sound like a “solution” compared to a Morsi government, that is not what Egypt needs for the long run. Military rule will bring Egypt back to where it was after the election when the military, under Tantawi, refused to hand power over to an interim civilian authority. Moreover, through the military, the US may eventually be able to ensure another puppet regime that does not serve the interests of the Egyptian people.

For western powers, it ultimately does not matter who rules Egypt—secular or Islamist—as long as the leadership allies with their economic and geo-political interests and agendas. It is likely that powerful western states were willing and happy to back an acquiescent Morsi government but are now waiting to see which way the popular winds will blow. If Morsi steps down or is forced out in the coming hours or days, then it is likely that the US and Israel will eventually attempt to influence the policies and direction of the nation through the military, and beyond.

In the face of this, Egypt needs a truly revolutionary, grass roots opposition; it requires a coalition of oppositional forces that can band together to address Egypt’s internal issues while avoiding the pitfalls of being Israel’s largest neighbour. What Egypt needs is an oppositional force that is truly revolutionary, is concerned with the poor, unemployed and the working class and is not beholden to, or a puppet of, western powers. Getting there will be no easy task but the people of Egypt have demonstrated and continue to demonstrate an unwillingness to go backwards. That is something to celebrate even if the immediate future is somewhat perilous.

Ghada Chehade is an independent political analyst, poet, and activist. She holds a PhD from McGill University www.ghadachehade.com

Notes

[1] http://www.uruknet.info/?p=m98786&hd=&size=1&l=e


[2] http://www.opendemocracy.net/fawaz-gerges/new-capitalists-islamists-political-economy

Egypt's Mursi slips on necrophilia 

Protestors line up the streets of Cairo

By Sergei Vasilenkov

At the end of the first full year of his presidency, Mohammed Mursi saw mass protests and demonstrations demanding his resignation on the streets of Egypt. The time when pro-democratic Egyptians rejoiced at the resignation of the autocratic Mubarak has vanished from people's memory. So what are the results of Mohammed Mursi's presidency?

Unfortunately, the Muslim Brotherhood, supported by the president, has not been very well. From the moment when tens of thousands of people took to the streets to protest the introduction of changes in the constitution of Egypt, journalists largely assumed that Mursi would not retreat. Everyone understood that Mursi's guarantees were only verbal, and the political biography of the president suggests that he will not become a "compromiser."

Mohammed Mursi Issa al-Ayat was born August 20, 1952 in the province of Sharqiya. According to his resume, he received a master's degree in engineering (Cairo University) and is a candidate of technical sciences (University of Southern California). He started his political career as a member of the commission on the resistance to Zionism. In 2000, he was elected a member of the Assembly of Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood. At the last National Assembly elections in 2005, he received the largest number of votes, but his opponent took the lead after the second round.

In 2000-2005, Mohammed Mursi was considered one of the most active members of the parliament. However, the Freedom and Justice Party, which includes the Muslim Brotherhood, approved Khairat al-Shater as a candidate for the presidential elections of 2012. Nevertheless, on April 7, 2012, Mursi became its reserve. It was a kind of a precautionary measure in the event of legal obstacles to appear for al-Shater. The Committee on Presidential Elections excluded el-Shater from the race on April 17, 2012, along with nine other candidates. Mohammed Mursi thus became the main candidate from the Party of Freedom and Justice. It is worth noting that, unlike his colleagues, Mursi had not served many years in jail, nor had he fallen a victim of persecution.

Mursi's uncompromising behavior was vital to the success of the new party. Despite the initially formed political coalition with more than 40 organizations, Mursi stubbornly insisted that the candidates from the Freedom and Justice Party should have a greater number of seats in the parliament. As a result, the coalition collapsed, and Mursi won 47 percent of parliamentary seats.

Of course, during his short presidential campaign, Mursi met with a wide range of Islamist leaders and revolutionary youth activists. He promised them to govern together, including through the appointment of women to senior positions in the government. In the end, after the elections, Mursi surrounded himself with affiliated Muslim advisers and filled his cabinet with ideological technocrats.

Mursi is unlikely to compromise with the general public, due to his familiarity with the unprecedented opportunity of the Muslim Brotherhood to get mobilized. In particular, the organization consists of so-called "families" that are based on almost every Egyptian area. During last year's revolution, the structure was vital to ensure turnout and addressing key issues of the uprising. Mursi is responsible for the activities of commanders. He remains confident that he can easily crush his current opponents, so he is unlikely to actively respond to the protests.

The Egyptians, when supporting Mursi, sincerely hoped that the democratically elected President would adhere to the ideals of the majority. Apparently, they were not the only ones, who were misled by insincere rhetoric and persuasion. The year of Mohammed Mursi's presidency was characterized by impartiality and non-fulfillment of promises. Mursi's party attempted to legalize necrophilia against women. Even though the Brotherhood claimed that they supported fundamental human rights, a few days before the election the organization tried to promote the law allowing husbands to have sex with their dead wives during six hours after their death.

Mursi's party pledges support to Israel. At about the same time, the newly elected Mohammed Mursi publicly and favorably reached his presidential helping hand to Iran and Palestine. A necessary condition for the functioning of democracy is a possibility to criticize the government. However, instead of defending democratic ideals, the Egyptian authorities arrested a comedian, who dared to make fun of the regime. Contrary to pre-election promises to stabilize the Egyptian economy, the situation worsened after 12 months of Mursi's presidency. The country suffers from serious shortage of fuel and electricity; prices and unemployment continue to grow.

After Mursi, the newly-born president, who received 51.7 percent of the vote at the election, was sworn in, he gave broad powers to the military and forced Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi out from the country (he is considered the head of state after the fall of Hosni Mubarak).

In December, the Constituent Assembly approved a new constitution and attempted to pass it through a referendum. The voter turnout was extremely low, and Egypt plunged into a political crisis. In January 2013, on the eve of the second anniversary of the uprising, demonstrators clashed with police, 60 people were killed. In May of this year, at the request of the opposition, Mursi reshuffled his cabinet. In June, the Supreme Court of Egypt found the Islamist majority in parliament, which also assumed the legislative role, illegal.

The President said that the government would remain in office until new candidates were elected. Tens of thousands of Islamists gathered for protests. Defense Minister Abdel Fattah al-Sisi warned that the army would intervene should violence occur. It was reported that before the protest meeting, which took place on June 30, 2013, more than 22 million people signed a petition demanding the resignation of Mursi.

Through his spokesman, Mursi made it clear that he was not going to step down. As a result, thousands of Islamists flooded the streets of Cairo. The protesters sought to make it clear that the country turned its back on Mursi. Demonstrators were walking along the streets, waving flags. Men and women, some of them with small children, were beating drum, singing and dancing.

What's next? Protesters vowed to remain in the streets until the president's resignation.

In a potentially explosive confrontation, a few dozen young men attacked the office of the Muslim Brotherhood, throwing firebombs at the building. The people, who were inside, opened fire at the attackers; four were killed. Enraged protesters marched to restore justice, the militants opened fire. The protesters clashed with security forces. To date, according to Egypt's Ministry of Health, about 600 people were injured and seven were killed.

Egyptian President Mohammed Mursi did not agree to accept the ultimatum from the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces. Egyptian state news agency MENA reported that Foreign Minister Mohamed Kamel Amr resigned. It was previously reported that eleven government ministers also applied for resignation.

Will Morsi get Mubarak treatment?

Deposed Egypt President Mohammed Morsi

Egypt's President Morsi is showing all the signs of imminent political implosion. Throughout history those at the top often remain in total denial that they are no longer really in charge.

When the Army delivered its 48 hour ultimatum that is what we call in Intel analysis “a strong hint.” It appears that Morsi did not get it.

That Egyptians in the terrible financial and political situation they find themselves could have the courage and fortitude to force a change in government as an act of national survival sets an example that Western publics seem helpless to do. Maybe they can teach us when it is over.

I have watched as the long suffering Muslim Brotherhood evolved from a terrorist opposition force into a political one. Such transitions are rare, and never easy. But they used what became a tried and true method. They renounced the corruption and greed of the Mubarak era thieves, and the financial cost of their armed resistance, to put all their resources into serving the neglected Egyptian people.

Providing local medical and other social support which was a very low priority with the Mubarak thugs was a guaranteed method of building their political support, albeit a slow one. The wisdom of patience is most often found in the East versus the West these days. 

But the last few days in Egypt show signs not only of some spontaneity but also well prepared plans to help stem the path of Egypt the Titanic into the iceberg dead ahead. It seems that the Army does not want to delay any longer and run the risk that a course change made too late will still see the ship of state's hull crushed by the hard ice and go down.

It has been a busy morning evaluating the key factors in this complex evolving drama. Morsi has all along seemed to have acted like he had Egypt tied to the mast of the good ship Muslim Brotherhood as they had won the elections. But he forgot one thing. Mubarak had won his last election, also, and he was overthrown from the bottom up. Everybody knows why.

The army walked a delicate line in the Mubarak downfall, keeping a lid on uncontrolled violence, and then going over to the people when Mubarak and his security minister unleashed the police and rent-a-thugs to crush the protestors. The Army went over to the people at that point. We all remember the camel cavalry charge on Tahrir Square.

Because the Muslim Brotherhood had had years of organizing experience plus established funding sources including some [Persian] Gulf State ones, despite their entering the Mubarak overthrow in the last days they ended up carjacking a revolution which was really started by the young people, including young women. I remember their faces like it was yesterday.

Those same young people see their future doomed as Morsi has focused primarily on maintaining Muslim Brotherhood control versus the overall interests of the country. Those interests are now primarily financial survival where Egypt will not become a debt slave to the Western banking system.

The IMF loans will only sink the country lower if the economy is turned around, which Morsi and the MB seem clueless as to how to do. With their being in power and foreseeing that continuing indefinitely, they personally did not view economic problems as their problems.

They threw away whatever bond of trust they had built with the many Egyptian people. Trading Mubarak autocracy for Muslim Brotherhood autocracy was not something they were willing to swallow. It was time for Morsi to get the Mubarak treatment, from those now experienced at doing it.

The Army had more complex motivations.Yes, they did not want to see the violence descend into a worst case scenario where troops would be killing fellow Egyptians. But they also saw that their futures were fatally wounded by Egypt remaining an isolated country. They did not want to remain on life support from international bankers and [Persian] Gulf State deep pockets who have been having a big case of the 'War Lord disease' recently, evidenced with their funding and arms support of the terrorists attacking Syria. 

In the past month, Morsi began making some strange moves. He called for Egyptians to assist in the Syrian bloodbath to help take down Assad who now has a comfortable majority of support. This is why he wants to stand for election in 2014. He is going to win by a comfortable margin if he is still around. That of course, is why the West and the FSA want him gone.

Morsi has also overseen the closing down of the Gazan tunnels, coordinated with the Israelis to keep the strangle hold on those impoverished people living in their outdoor prison camp and deemed a mortal threat to Israel when it is really the other way around. That had us scratching our heads here, wondering what the heck Morsi was doing, and why now. He seemed to be shooting his feet off.

We saw the hand of the [Persian] Gulf State funders having Morsi on a financial lifeline string to maintain a MB dominated Egypt regardless to opposition opinion. What we are seeing now is that the Army began to realize that once Syria was successfully Balkanized, which Henry Kissinger spilled the beans on being the real plan for Syria, that Egypt would be next in line to be neutralized forever with a similar treatment.

Morsi's response to the Blue Nile controversy, the 'Dam Scam', was perplexing at first as it never had any intention of cutting off Egypt's water. Morsi's over response was a calculated one, purely as a diversion for his own sliding approval and storm clouds gathering over his first anniversary. He was setting Ethiopia up for later blaming them for Egypt's continuing financial decline, which showed a drowning man flailing about. The army certainly took notice that he used them as a threaten Ethiopia over a nonexistent problem.

And Morsi had tied Egypt's ship to Turkey and Erdogan, where he has turned into a multiple personality risk with his geopolitical flip flops between pro-Islamic and then pro-Israeli. Then later he was a Western independent and then a tool of the West when he became the main logistical support for the Syrian revolution which could never have been planned without prior approval of Erdogan support.

Yes, the al-Nusra terrorists are the number one bad guys there now, but they took advantage of the miscalculation facilitated by Turkey, Israel, the West and the Gulf States.

The Egyptian Army has a heritage with Syria going back to the United Arab Republic of the Cold War years. They know that the West and [Persian] Gulf states taking Syria out of the game now are all part of a continued isolation game on Iran who is the major evolving power of the region. The West is playing a losing hand here.

Iran not only has natural resource wealth in abundance, but also, which the sanctions period has shown, tremendous people: natural resources that have pulled together in this time of need. They have domestically produced the key sanction items that they needed to defeat the West's economic strangulation. And mind you this was a country that was no demonstrated security threat to the West whatsoever.

The Egyptian army is moving now to reverse a deal they feel the Muslim Brotherhood has made with you know who. With their slight popular vote majority and endless [Persian] Gulf State funding, the generals saw their country being ruled by outside proxy rulers for of course outside interests, and not Egypt's.

I picked up on this, as often happens, on just a few key pieces of the puzzle. The army leaked their road map plan to the international press. The suspension of the constitution and dissolving of the MB dominated parliament was expected, as was having a new presidential election. But they made a key issue of delaying parliamentary elections “until strict conditions for selecting candidates were in force.”

The Egyptian Army don't want to be pawns of the West, or its [Persian] Gulf proxies either. But worst of all they don't want to be isolated because Egypt will economically suffer the fate of the Titanic for sure, where there are not enough boats for everyone.